车险改革那些事儿!

7个月前 (05-09) 0 点赞 0 收藏 0 评论 88 已阅读

车险综改后大型公司的竞争优势得以进一步显现。

摘要

费改之前:监管市场化改革初探收效不及预期,保单责任不合理,行业乱象丛生。三轮费改之前,行业层面,监管于2003-2006年初探费率市场化改革,后因收效不及预期回归统颁条款;车险市场层面,保单责任不合理、高保低赔、无责不赔等问题较为突出,期间参与主体快速增加,行业长期处于承保亏损或微利状态,同时行业信息化程度较低、数据失真问题严重;险企方面,锚定综合成本率的定价方式导致赔付和费用出现“跷跷板”效应。我们认为监管价格高于成本价是行业进行价格竞争的直接原因,而车险数据失真加大了管理难度;险企具有强烈的竞争意愿是内在原因,由于当时车险市场和险企数量均处于快速增长期,叠加非车险处于发展初期,车险成为财险公司的必争之地。

费改+综改:将定价权逐步交给市场,推动成本结构改善。三轮费改加综改优化了车险的定价公式、费率调整系数以及保单责任,同时逐步细化费用监管、推动经营效率提升。从结果上看,三轮费改+综改逐步推动车险价格下行,将定价权逐步交给市场,综改更是对赔付费用结构带来直接的影响。

如何理解大型公司的竞争优势?车险改革本质上为市场化改革,我们认为行业市场化程度提高的过程推动大型公司的规模优势以及基于规模在定价、渠道等车险经营各个方面衍生出的综合优势得以进一步的显现,进入到成本更低—>定价更优、服务更好—>市占提升的正向循环。

未来头部公司或形成一定默契,中小公司或改变经营策略寻求差异化破局。相较于2003年,车险综合改革所处的背景已发生变化,我们认为综改的结果也将有所不同,由于当前市场格局下大型公司依赖既有规模优势便可实现经营向好、份额提升,我们认为大型公司在车险综改后或形成一定默契,按照既定的策略经营业务;中小险企或将不得不在车险业务上改变经营策略或在非车领域寻求差异化破局,未来小公司若出清将加速市场集中度提升,不出清亦难以改变强者恒强的格局。

风险

自然灾害;车险市场竞争加剧;资本市场大幅波动。

正文

费改之前:监管市场化改革初探收效不及预期,保单责任不合理,行业乱象丛生

三轮费改之前,监管初探费率市场化改革,后因收效不及预期回归统颁条款;车险市场方面,保单责任不合理,高保低赔、无责不赔等现象侵害消费者权益,同时参与主体快速增加,行业长期处于承保亏损或微利状态;险企方面:锚定综合成本率的定价方式导致赔付和费用出现“跷跷板”效应。对于行业内的价格和费用竞争,我们认为监管价格高于成本价是直接原因,车险信息化程度低、数据不真实加剧了竞争;车险市场和参与主体数量均处于快速增长期是内在原因,叠加当时非车业务处于发展初期车险成为财险公司的必争之地,行业内主体有着强烈的竞争意愿。

监管层面:费率市场化改革初探收效不及预期,行业回归统颁条款

车险市场化改革前的监管阶段可细分如下:

►1992-2000年:统颁条款阶段。彼时车险保险条款和费率由人保制定并经由人民银行审批,后续监管针对市场情况进行过系列微调,但整体仍处于严格管制阶段。

►2001-2006年:市场化改革初探阶段,行业信息化程度低加大管理难度。2001年,中国加入WTO后,车险费率市场化的呼声逐渐增强。2001年3月,原保监会在深圳试点机动车辆保险费率结构调整。同年10月1日,在广东省试点车险费率改革。2002年8月,原保监会下发《关于改革机动车辆保险条款费率管理办法有关问题的通知》,通知规定:“机动车辆保险条款费率不再统一制订,各保险公司自主制定、修改和调整机动车辆保险费率,经保险监管部门备案后,向全社会公布使用”。2003年,车险市场费率大幅下降,整体价格下降约30%。但由于行业处于发展初期,自定条款费率的弊端快速显现,行业主体大幅降价导致车险赔付率快速提升,行业陷入亏损。车险信息化程度低、数据失真进一步加大了管理难度,一方面监管无法及时、真实地监测行业费用使用情况;另一方面也滋生车险欺诈等乱象,侵蚀行业利润。2004-2006年行业开始探索费率自律性公约,保险公司开始逐步上调费率,但由于部分公司未能严格遵守自律性公约,行业价格战并未得到根治。

►2007-2009年:回归统颁条款,监管推动信息化建设。由于行业乱象丛生,2006年监管全面叫停费率市场化,由中国保险行业协会统一制定A、B、C 三款基本险条款,并厘定相应费率。各保险公司从中选择条款费率并执行。此后,原保监会出台“限折令”,规定保险公司的车险保单折扣最低为七折,即各公司通过无赔款优待、从人因素、从车因素等方式给与投保人的所有优惠综合不得超过车险产品基准费率的30%,进一步加强了费率的统一性。监管回归统颁条款的初衷是希望行业将焦点从价格竞争转移至服务竞争,倒逼保险公司提升差异化的服务能力。现在看来,监管回归统颁条款有效地遏制了当时行业车险综合成本率的上升趋势,但统颁条款的价格仍较高,保险公司仍然存在较为宽裕的费用空间,同时产品同质化也带来理赔端保险公司推诿责任等问题。同时期监管着手提升行业信息化水平,2009年中、2010年初上海、北京分别上线商业车险信息共享平台。

►2010-2014年:市场化改革重启准备期,行业信息化建设提速。2010年6月,原保监会了下发了《关于在深圳开展商业车险定价机制改革试点的通知》,财产保险公司可使用现行的商业车险行业指导条款和费率,也可自主开发基于不同客户群体、不同销售渠道的商业车险深圳专用产品。继深圳之后,厦门、江苏、大连也相继启动了车险费率浮动试点工作。同时商业车险信息共享平台推广至全国,为费率市场化提供了良好的监管保障。期间原保监会于2008年印发《中国保监会关于进一步规范财产保险市场秩序工作方案》(简称70号文),要求进一步规范财产保险市场秩序,主要整治内容包括擅自改变条款费率、理赔端侵害消费者权益等,此后市场秩序得到有效规范,行业效益有所好转。期间颇具争议的事件便是2012-2014年多地行业协会因费率管控被查被罚,其中2014浙江保险行业协会获巨额罚单,主要因行业协会联合主流保险公司设定费率和折扣率上限被认定违反反垄断法。

图表1:浙江保险行业协会处罚结果

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:银保监会,中金公司研究部

市场层面:保单责任不合理,参与主体快速增加,行业持续亏损

►保单责任不合理。费改前,高保低赔和无责不赔是车险市场最突出的两个问题。高保低赔指消费者在投保车险时按新车购置价确定保费,而车辆发生全部损失却按折旧价赔付;无责不赔指如果车主被判定无责(例如被他人追尾),保险公司不承担赔付责任,这意味着若肇事方拖延赔付,车主将面临损失。2012年第一版《机动车辆商业保险示范条款》出台,规定车辆损失保险的保险金额按投保时被保险机动车的实际价值确定,即“实保实赔”,以及规定因第三方对被保险机动车的损害而造成保险事故的,被保险人向第三方索赔的,保险人应积极协助,被保险人也可以直接向保险公司索赔,由保险公司行使代位求偿。但由于落地较为缓慢以及试点城市较少,未能取得显著成效。

►市场参与主体快速增加。2000年-2014年财险市场参与主体由17家快速增加至66家,新进入者普遍依靠激进的渠道和费用策略做大规模。彼时行业头部化格局基本形成,新进入者对剩余市场的争抢难以避免地推动行业陷入非理性竞争并滋生乱象。

►费改前车险渠道结构向车商集中。车商、修理厂等兼业代理为车险销售的重要渠道,费改前占比约60%-70%,主要由于中国汽车行业正处于快速发展期,新车成为必争之地,且新车赔付情况较好,而4S店在新车销售中的话语权较高,同时电销网销保险仍未形成规模,因此渠道结构向车商集中。消费者处于严重的信息劣势,这也使得保险公司为了抢占车险市场份额不得不给予车商渠道高额的手续费。

►费改前车险市场绝大多数时间处于整体承保亏损或微利的状态、且赔付费用结构不合理。从车险综合成本率看,在2010年监管尝试探索市场化改革前,车险经历多年承保亏损,随着市场化改革的探索,车险承保端逐渐实现稳定的微利。从综合成本率的结构看,2010年我国车险行业赔付率64%,费用率37%,与同期海外主要市场(美国-以汽车责任险为例:赔付率76.8%、费用率29.1%;德国:赔付率长期高于90%、费用率不足10%)的结构存在差异。

从结果上看,高保低赔和无责不赔等现象下保险公司并未因此取得更好的经营结果,激进的扩张策略导致行业在赔付优化的趋势下陷入价格战和费用战,保险公司和车主的利益均遭到损害。我们认为,车险改革前市场价格战的直接原因是监管指导价较高,险企拥有较为一定的费用空间;此外车险市场和参与主体数量均处于快速增长期是内在原因,叠加当时非车业务处于发展初期车险成为财险公司的必争之地,行业内主体有强烈的竞争意愿。

图表2:财险和车险行业大多年份处于承保亏损或微利状态

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:银保监会,中金公司研究部

险企层面:锚定综合成本率的定价方式出现赔付和费用的“跷跷板”效应

定价机制层面,保险公司凭借自身理赔数据,基于车主和车型的预期赔付对个体进行定价,输出风险保费,通过锚定综合成本率倒减出销售费用的空间。在统颁条款框架和锚定综合成本率的定价机制下,当保险公司计算出来的价格低于监管地板价时,赔付率的改善会扩大保险公司可用的销售费用空间。

考核机制层面,规模和盈利是股东最看重的指标,因此财险公司往往制定保费规模和综合成本率为最终考核指标,且行业快速发展时保费规模的重要性高于综合成本率,而赔付率仅为过程管控指标。这进一步导致公司在实际赔付好于预期的情况下,更有动力通过提升渠道投入来获取市场,而不是降低价格。

在上述机制下,赔付和费用之间形成了“跷跷板”效应,加大销售费用投入成为保险公司的共同策略,即使监管限制佣金及手续费率,保险公司可通过其他方式修饰报表,例如在销售中给予客户附加权益并将相关成本计入业务及管理费,或是扣除额外手续费直接计入净保费等,进而规避监管红线,导致行业恶性竞争的格局无法得到根本改善。

三轮费改+综改:将定价权逐步交给市场,推动成本结构改善

商业车险费率市场化改革(以下简称“商车费改”或“费改”)自2015年6月开始历经三轮渐进式的改革,随后车险综合改革(以下简称“综改”)于2020年9月落地,进一步全面深化我国商业车险的费率市场化机制。从目的上看,一系列改革旨在将车险费率定价权交予市场主体手中,同时推动保单成本结构改善;从结果上看,三轮费改+车险综合改革逐步放开定价系数的区间,车险价格下行。车险综改更是对赔付费用结构带来直接的影响。

一轮费改于2015年2月启动、2015年6月落地,为期两年。此次费改升级了商车示范条款及保费定价公式,并通过两个自主定价系数开始赋予保险公司更多的自主定价权。

二轮费改于2017年6月启动,随后三轮费改于2018年3月启动。二轮、三轮费改根据一轮费改整体情况落实更多配套监管政策:进一步调降多地费率调整系数下限;对综合成本率、综合费用率、未决赔款准备金提转差率等进行更严格的阈值监管;实行“报行合一”政策。

综改于2020年7月启动,2020年9月正式落地。综改对前期费改规定做了全面的调整,同时提升交强险保障范围,进一步推动车险行业的全面改革。

图表3:费改+综改的改革进程概览

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:银保监会,中国保险行业协会,中金公司研究部

主要内容:公式升级、系数优化、细化费用监管、保障升级

商车险定价公式升级:车险定价影响因素增多,逐步放开自主定价

费改+综改升级了原有的商车险定价公式,车险定价影响因素增多。费改期间的主要调整有:1)保费定价公式调整为:保费=基础纯风险保费/(1-附加费用率)×费率调整系数;2)推出新版基础纯风险保费表,基础纯风险保费厘定时的影响因素增多。目前,车型、使用年限及使用性质、地区等都将影响纯风险保费;3)费率调整系数由原有的一项扩充为四项,车主风险及险企成本相关的影响因素增加,其中自主核保系数、自主渠道系数为险企自主定价部分,由监管给定系数的浮动区间。综改期间对车险定价公式并无重大改动,仅改动了费率调整系数部分,将其中的自主核保系数及自主渠道系数合二为一,设为自主定价系数。同时,推出了2020版示范产品纯风险保费表,并提出了1-3年为一个调整周期的纯风险保费测算机制。

图表4:商车险定价公式升级:车险定价影响因素增多,逐步放开自主定价

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:银保监会,中国保险行业协会,中金公司研究部

商车险费率调整系数优化:价格下限下探,无赔款优待系数优化

►商车保费自主定价系数浮动范围不断扩大,价格下限不断下探。以全国(除单列地区)为例,一轮费改的自主定价最低折扣为0.85*0.85=0.7225,二轮费改则下探至了0.85*0.75=0.6375;综改期间,自主定价部分将原先两个系数合二为一,形成自主定价系数,并统一规定该系数的浮动区间为[0.65-1.35],相比费改期间的自主定价系数下限略有上调,但考虑到风险保费下降,整体价格下限仍在下探。同时综改明确未来该区间将进一步放开。

图表5:费改以来,自主系数浮动范围在扩大,价格下限不断下探

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:银保监会,中金公司研究部 注:图中所示为每轮改革的新增调整内容

►商车保费无赔款优待系数(NCD系数)不断优化,不同风险人群保费差异持续分化,低风险客户折扣力度提升。以连续4年未发生赔款的被保险人为例,其NCD系数折扣在费改前为0.7,费改后为0.6,综改后则降至0.5。反之,对于上一年发生5次赔款的出险者而言,其NCD系数将由费改前的1.3上升至目前的2.0,提升显著。

图表6:无赔款优待系数(NCD系数)不断优化,不同风险人群保费差异扩大

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:银保监会,中国保险行业协会,中金公司研究部 注:表中仅列示我国多数地区的NCD系数,个别地区的差异化NCD系数并未展示

逐步细化费用监管,提升行业运营效率

车险市场运营逐步精细化。费改实行初期,由于无赔款优待导致出险率下降以及放开定价后中小公司通过激进的费用政策争抢份额,导致行业陷入非理性竞争。险企通过增加费用、释放准备金的方式来获取保费规模,出现了行业费用水平上升、赔付水平下降的偏离监管初衷的情况,行业盈利一度恶化。同时,为了掩饰费用水平上升过快,部分公司通过挂账、不实记录“手续费支出”科目等方式延迟费用呈现,或是通过虚列中介业务等方式套取手续费。因此原保监会于二轮费改时出台《中国保监会关于整治机动车辆保险市场乱象的通知》,并在后续各项监管文件中对乱象进行治理,以增强行业运营效率。具体内容包括:

►二轮费改后开始三率的阈值管理:二轮费改后,监管开始对三率进行阈值监管,要求综合成本率、综合费用率等主要指标预期值均不高于其前三年平均值,以限制行业非理性竞争及高费用乱象;要求未决赔款准备金提转差率((未决赔款准备金提转差-摊回未决赔款准备金)/已赚保费)不低于其前三年的平均值,以限制险企激进化拓展业务及赔付效率低下的问题。

►三轮费改时“报行合一”政策出台:为限制险企非理性费用竞争、提升行业费用真实性,“报行合一”政策于三轮费改推出,明确各险企应报送新车业务费率折扣系数、手续费的取值范围和使用规则。该政策对保单年中介机构费用率、保单年个人代理人费用率、中介机构或个人代理人手续费等相关报送指标的定义和报送频率进行了明确,其中,监管对手续费的定义涵盖了几乎全部的销售费用,以避免保险公司通过费用科目的转移规避监管。

►综改进一步下调附加费用率上限,并进一步加大对虚挂中介费用、费用不真实等乱象的处罚力度:综改启动后,附加费用率的上限由综改期间的35%调降至25%,对应上调预期赔付率至75%。保费定价公式中基准保费=基准纯风险保费/(1-附加费用率), 其中,附加费用率=1-预期赔付率。监管对附加费用率上限的下调实际是进一步压缩了保险公司的费用空间,旨在优化行业赔付、费用结构,增强行业运营效率,同时进一步加强对费用违规行为的处罚。

►与费用政策配套的是行业信息化水平快速提升。2013年中保信成立后首先完善全国车险信息平台建设,推动行业费用数据透明化、真实化,同时加大车险反欺诈识别,提升监管效率并推动行业向精细化运营转变。

图表7: 综改后,银保监会加强对费用违规行为的处罚力度

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:银保监会,中金公司研究部

交强险保障水平升级:责任限额提升,费率浮动系数优化

综改后,交强险责任限额提升,交通事故费率浮动系数优化,保费优惠力度加强。交强险责任限额从综改前的12.2万元提高至20万元,无责任限额从综改前的1.21万元提高至1.99万元。交通事故费率浮动系数引入区域浮动因子,不同区域系数区间不同,浮动比率下限由综改前的-30%下调至-50%,保费优惠力度加大。

图表8:综改后,交强险责任限额提升,交通事故费率浮动系数优化,保费优惠力度加强

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:银保监会,中金公司研究部

商业车险示范条款推陈出新:保障范围不断扩大,鼓励行业创新

►费改期间商车险示范条款推陈出新,保障范围不断扩大。费改期间,行业协会推出了2014版商车示范条款,减少多条车险责任免除,扩大保障范围。综改进一步推出2020版商车示范条款,1)理顺商车险主险及附加险责任,引导行业在车损险主险条款现有保险责任基础上增加机动车全车盗抢、玻璃单独破碎、自燃、发动机涉水、不计免赔率、无法找到第三方特约等保险责任;2)优化商车险保障服务,引导行业合理删减实践中容易引发理赔争议的免责条款,合理删减事故责任免赔率、无法找到第三方免赔率等免赔约定;3)提升商车险责任限额,支持行业将商业三责险责任限额从5万-500万元档次提升至10万-1,000万元档次。

图表9:综改后的商车险示范条款变化:保障范围扩大,责任限额提升

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:银保监会,中国保险行业协会,中金公司研究部

►综改鼓励行业创新,支持行业对创新险种示范条款的制定。综改监管文件中明确:支持行业制定新能源车险、驾乘人员意外险、机动车延长保修险示范条款,探索在新能源汽车和具备条件的传统汽车中开发机动车里程保险(UBI)等创新产品。《中国保险行业新能源汽车商业保险专属条款(试行)》已于近期发布。

三轮费改+综改的影响:价格下降消费者获利,头部险企竞争优势扩大

消费者层面:保障范围扩大,车均保费下降,用户行车习惯改善

保费定价公式及示范条款更新,车险保障范围扩大,车均保费下降。交强险、商车险在改革过后保障范围、责任限额均有所提升,同时保费大幅下降。以交强险为例,车均保费在2015年后呈下降趋势。此外,银保监会公布2021年年末消费者商车险车均保费为2761元,较车险综改前降低21%。我们认为费改和综改期间车均保费下降的主要原因包括:1)车险定价影响因素增多,费率调整系数不断优化,险企能够给出的折扣下限下探;2)改革初期行业竞争加剧,经营主体价格竞争以获取更多客户;3)受2016年“营改增”的影响,保费收入核算方式发生变化,增值税时期的保费收入为非含税口径,保费收入下降。

商车险无赔款优待系数(NCD系数)的优化以及交强险费率浮动系数区间的扩大导致用户行车习惯和赔付习惯有所改善。NCD系数、交强险费率浮动系数区间扩大使得车主倾向于减少交通事故出险频次,开车更为小心。以交强险为例,2014年起出险率呈现下滑趋势(2019年大幅下降主要因疫情封锁导致2019年签发的保单在2020上半年出险率较低)。

图表10:交强险车均保费呈现下降趋势

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:中国保险行业协会,公司公告,中金公司研究部

注:由于车险车均保费数据不可得,这里展示代表性财险公司交强险车均保费数据,其与总车险车均保费演变趋势一致

图表11:交强险出险率呈现下降趋势

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:中国保险行业协会,公司公告,中金公司研究部注:由于车险车均保费数据不可得,这里展示代表性财险公司交强险车均保费数据,其与总车险车均保费演变趋势一致。且出险率为保单年度数据

经营主体层面:综改后行业盈利能力恶化但成本结构改善;市场集中度提升

三轮费改+综改本质上为提升车险市场化的过程,在市场化程度提高的过程中,监管动态调整策略,市场主体也动态适应现状并改变业务节奏。三轮费改以及综改之后,行业整体盈利能力恶化但成本结构改善,保费和承保盈利的市场集中度进一步提升。

1)盈利能力:费改期间行业盈利能力波动改善,但综合成本率结构未明显变化;综改后行业整体盈利能力恶化,监管直接引导综合成本率结构优化,大型公司和中小公司盈利分化。

►一轮费改实施后:报案率下降推动赔付率下降,成本结构偏离监管预期。得益于无赔款优待系数放开,用户谨慎对待出险与索赔,报案率下降,行业赔付率有所下降,盈利能力小幅改善。但从综合成本率结构来看,呈现赔付率下降,费用率上升且幅度高于赔付率下降幅度的趋势。我们认为这主要由于赔付优化下,市场经营主体有更高的费用空间,可以通过降价或提升费用的激进策略来获取客户所致。头部险企得益于规模优势,费用率水平低于行业约5个百分点,其盈利能力相对更好。

►二、三轮费改实施后:行业盈利能力基本维持稳定,成本结构略有优化。期间一系列监管政策出台(三率阈值监管、“报行合一”政策、对费用乱象进行严格惩处)对险企的费用水平进行约束,费用上升、费用不真实等情况得到遏制,行业盈利有所改善,同时综合成本率结构也略有优化。

►综改实施后:行业盈利能力整体恶化,大型公司和中小公司显著分化。综改后车险行业陷入亏损,2021年综合成本率为101%,同时由于监管规定附加费用率上限从35%下调至25%,硬约束下综合成本率结构显著优化。从结果来看,大型公司和中小公司车险业务经营进一步分化,大型公司承保盈利的市占率超过100%。

图表12:费改期间,行业综合成本率小幅改善;综改后,行业陷入承保亏损

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:公司公告,银保监会,13个精算师公众号,中金公司研究部

图表13:费改/综改后,行业费用率压降显著大于头部公司

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:公司公告,银保监会,13个精算师公众号,中金公司研究部

2)市场格局:费改及综改后市场集中度波动提升

►费改后市场集中度波动,2014-2018年车险CR3先降后升。费改初期集中度下降主要由于配套费用管控政策没有跟上,中小险企更多采取激进策略获取市场规模所致,随着二轮、三轮费改收紧费用政策,集中度有所回升。

►综改后市场集中度提升,2021年车险CR3为68.9%,较2019年提升1.7个百分点。我们认为主要因综改下调附加费用率上限,叠加费改后期的费用管控政策严格执行,导致中小险企难以压降费用,无法进行激进的业务扩张。

图表14:费改+综改后,市场集中度(CR3)波动上升

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:公司公告,银保监会,中金公司研究部

图表15:费用政策收紧阶段,头部险企市场份额均有所上升

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:公司公告,银保监会,Wind资讯,中金公司研究部注:6家代表性中小险企分别为太平财险、大地财险、国寿财险、阳光财险、华安财险、中华联合财险

头部公司或形成一定默契,中小公司或改变经营策略寻求差异化破局

如何理解大型公司的竞争优势

我们认为车险改革本质上为市场化改革,相较于市场化程度较低的时期,在市场化程度提高的过程中大型公司的规模优势以及基于规模在定价、渠道等车险经营各个方面衍生出的综合优势得到进一步的凸显,并且进入到成本更低—>定价更优、服务更好—>市占提升的正向循环。

►规模优势:车险业务具有显著的规模效应,规模效应直接地体现为固定成本的不同,大型公司凭借显著的规模优势实现优于行业整体的经营效率,而在此前市场化程度较低的时期规模优势难以充分体现。

►定价优势:基于规模优势和数据优势,大型公司往往掌握更多的数据和资本,能够更加精准的识别个体风险,并且针对其配套相应的费用策略。在行业逐步将定价权交予市场主体的过程中,大型公司在风险定价这一核心能力上的领先优势进一步凸显。

►渠道优势:基于规模优势和品牌效应,优秀的财险公司对第三方销售渠道的控制能力强于同业,能够掌握获取优质新车业务的入口,同时能够凭借强大的直销渠道更好地控制销售费用。

图表16:头部财险公司规模优势凸显

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:公司公告,中金公司研究部

头部公司或形成一定默契,中小公司或改变经营策略寻求差异化破局

根据我国车险市场的现状并参考海外车险市场费率市场化改革的经验,我们对综改后的车险行业发展趋势做出以下判断:

►背景已变,车险综改与2003年的市场化初探有所不同。我们认为车险综改的结果将与2003-2006年车险行业推行市场化改革有所不同,相较于当时,车险综合改革所处的背景已发生变化:1)前期已推行多年渐进式的费率改革,逐步将定价权交给市场,几轮改革中中小主体激进开展业务的同时也带来持续的承保亏损;2)银保监会的监管措施更加成熟、精细化,比如高频监测保费增速、费率回溯,处罚包括停止车险业务、高管负责等,对于违规行为的处罚力度更强;3)行业信息化水平大幅提升,数据真实性显著提高;4)财险公司主体数量已几乎不再增加,车险市场保费增速显著放缓,同时非车险快速发展,财险公司对于车险业务的竞争意愿有所降低。

►头部公司或形成一定默契,依赖自身规模优势推动市场份额自然提升。参考海外经验,日本费改后行业主体数量由2000年的64家减少到了2004年的48家,财险整体CR6由2000年的59%提升至2003年的91%。德国在车险费改后行业参与主体数量锐减,集中度进一步提升。着眼国内市场,由于改革后的市场格局下大型公司依赖既有规模优势便可推动经营持续向好、市场份额自然提升,我们认为大型公司在车险综改后或形成一定默契,按照既定的策略经营既可。

►小公司开始寻求差异化破局。海外市场费改后,进一步挤占险企的费用空间,同时产品责任及定价因子范围进一步拓宽,小公司或改变经营策略或凭借创新产品逐渐立足,我们判断我国中小险企也将不得不在车险业务上改变经营策略或在非车领域寻求差异化破局。未来小公司若出清将加速市场集中度提升,不出清亦难以改变强者恒强的格局。

附录:海外车险费改启示——费用市场化将带来集中度提升

日本:费改后行业亏损主体出清,集中度提升

费改初期,产品保障范围扩大、差异化竞争加剧,车均保费持续下降,行业面临亏损。费改后期,市场亏损主体出清,大公司兼并收购加强实力,行业集中度进一步提升。日本于1996年启动车险费率市场化改革,费率监管从强制统一费率(Obligatory rate)转向监管建议、险企自行定费体系(Advisory loss cost system)。此次费改的主要变化有:1)险企自1997年7月后采用的费率将不再由监管统一制定,可自行厘定;2)费率报批从审批制(Approval)转换为报备制(Notification);3)启动反垄断法案,对车险行业实行反垄断监管。

费改初期由于费率放开,海外主体依托其产品开发的优势参与车险市场竞争,市场主体数量上升,行业竞争加剧。市场主体通过产品创新、扩大保障范围、降价来获得竞争优势,导致1997-2000年车均保费不断下降,赔付率不断走高,行业面临亏损。费改后期,车均保费仍然呈下降趋势,行业亏损导致能力较弱的小型险企被淘汰,大型险企通过兼并收购不断增强自身定价及费用管控能力。由此,行业主体数量由2000年的64家减少到了2004年的48家。同时,市场集中度也进一步提升,2000年前6险企市场份额占比为59%,2003年前6险企市场份额上升到了91%。

图表17:费改后,日本车险赔付率水平走高,后期下降

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:GIAJ,中金公司研究部注:由于官方未披露综合成本率等指标,图中赔付率为计算值,采用车险直接赔付支出/直接保费收入(direct claim paid/ direct premium)计算,未考虑损失调整支出,和其他国家赔付率水平不可比

图表18:日本车均保费在费改后呈下降趋势

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:GIAJ,日本车辆检查及登记情报协会,中金公司研究部注:由于官方未披露车均保费,图中车均保费为估计值,采用车险保费收入/登记的车辆数计算

图表19: 费改后期,市场中小主体出清以及兼并收购加剧导致日本车险集中度提升

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:GIAJ,Sompo Japan,中金公司研究部 注:此份额为财险整体份额,车险份额数据不可得

德国:与日本趋势类似,但原生市场竞争较为激烈

德国费改后行业趋势与日本类似,但由于原生市场竞争更加激烈,集中度提升较日本幅度更小。随着欧盟对欧洲保险市场监管改革的推进,德国于1994年开始启动车险费率市场化改革。改革的主要内容有:1)废除原来的价格管制,使得险企可以自主厘定费率、制定条款;2)废除原先的费率审批制。费改前,监管统一规定费率和条款的业态持续多年,行业保持较为稳定的增长和盈利能力,但行业中的产品几乎是完全同质的。

费改初期,费率市场化使得更多国外竞争者加入德国市场,产品竞争加剧,车均保费持续下降,行业赔付率高企并陷入亏损。费改后期,亏损主体持续出清,市场经营主体由1999年的126家减少到了2006年的103家。市场集中度也略有提升,前十车险险企的市场份额由1994年的45%提升到了2006年的52%。与日本较为不同的是,德国的竞争格局相对更为分散,市场竞争一直更为激烈,且其成本呈现高赔付率和个位数低费用率的结构,这使得德国险企在激烈的竞争环境中难以盲目地扩张规模,而需要通过更精细化的运营以降低赔付率水平,提高盈利能力。因此可以看到,1999年后车均保费有一定上升,市场自发性从价格战转为精细化运营,这也使得头部险企的规模优势和定价优势得到放大。

图表20:费改后,德国车险赔付率恶化,市场主体逐渐出清后有所好转

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:GDV,Zeitschrift Für Die Gesamte Versicherungs-Wissenschaft,中金公司研究部

图表21:费改后,德国车均保费呈下降趋势

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:GDV,Zeitschrift Für Die Gesamte Versicherungs-Wissenschaft,中金公司研究部

图表22:德国费改初期市场主体增加,竞争加剧,后期不断减少

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:GDV,中金公司研究部

图表23:费改后,德国车险市场集中度上升

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:GDV,Zeitschrift Für Die Gesamte Versicherungs-Wissenschaft,中金公司研究部

图表24: 德国定价计算方式复杂,产品开发更加精细化

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:《中国商业车险市场发展的量化分析与精算定价模型研究》—孙维伟,2015,中金公司研究部

美国:各州监管差异性较大,市场化背景下仍呈现头部集中趋势

美国的车险市场环境相较日本、德国有较大差异——自由市场基础深厚,不同区域之间的市场及监管措施差异显著,因此各州费改进程、费改后的市场格局也有所不同。例如加州费改由市场化转为相对严监管,南卡罗莱纳州费改由相对严监管转为市场化。我们选取与中国改革趋势相近的的南卡罗莱纳州为例,其改革结果与日本、德国类似,改革后行业集中度进一步提升。费改前的严监管下,由于郊区超速、频繁的严重事故、好诉讼的法律环境等原因使得行业赔付高企,但费率受到监管限制,行业普遍陷入亏损,部分险企退出该市场。1997年,南卡罗莱纳州启动费改,将严格的审批制(Prior approval)(该州费改前的费率监管制度非常严格:对险企费率厘定进行严格的限制,费率因子基本由监管统一规定)改为较为灵活的有限灵活费率制(Limited flex)。该框架下费率和承保条款制定可以在监管规定的范围中自行厘定,并在使用后备案即可。

图表25: 目前美国各州费率监管体系:审批制最严格,多数州采用提前备案制

车险改革那些事儿!

资料来源:NAIC,Consumer Federation of Amercia,中金公司研究部

从费改结果来看,费率自由化使得部分险企重新加入市场竞争,在南卡罗莱纳州展业的保险集团数从1997年的43家增加到了2001年的67家。费改初期,行业主体大量进入,产品差异化竞争加剧,赔付率高企。费改后期,亏损主体出清,行业重归理性,单均保费有所上升,赔付率下降,行业盈利能力有所提升,2001年行业险企车险净资本回报率(return on net worth)由负转正。与此同时,涨价背景下头部险企依托其规模优势和定价优势给予客户更加有吸引力的报价,市场份额提升,CR3由1990年的49.6%升至2000年的55.9%。

图表26:以综合车险为例,费改前南卡罗莱纳州赔付率高企,费改后下降至全国平均水平

资料来源:NAIC,中金公司研究部注:综合车险(comprehensive)为美国车险中的一个细分险种,主要承保由非撞击导致的意外事故所致的损失。

图表27:费改初期,南卡罗莱纳州市场主体增加,竞争加剧;费改后期伴随出清,险企数量维持稳定

资料来源:NAIC,《The effects of regulatory reforms in the South Carolina auto insurance market》-Martin F Grace, Robert W Klein, & Sharon Tennyson. 2013,中金公司研究部

文章来源

本文摘自:2022年5月6日已经发布的《激荡二十年:复盘车险改革之路》

毛晴晴 SAC 执业证书编号:S0080522040002 SFC CE Ref:BRI453

王子咸 SAC 执业证书编号:S0080121050012

姚泽宇 SAC 执业证书编号:S0080518090001 SFC CE Ref:BIJ003

分享自 中金点睛 公众号

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人寿保险车险礼品 车载行车记录仪可定制其他公司logo 券后价¥222.3 淘宝 优惠券¥10 立即领券
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